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Liga MX playoffs preview: Can Toluca go back-to-back?

And then there were eight.

With the 2025 Apertura regular season wrapped up, as well as the recent preliminary play-in round involving seeds No. 7-10, Liga MX’s playoff stage is now set to commence this week.

For longtime followers of the league, it’s not surprising to see many of Liga MX’s heavy hitters involved in the postseason. Current titleholders Toluca are in the mix at the top of the table, while fan favorite powerhouses such as Club América and Chivas de Guadalajara have secured invitations. Meanwhile, perennial playoff contenders such as Tigres, Monterrey and Cruz Azul have also put themselves in the running.

That said, where the inevitable surprises and stunning moments do in fact emerge are in the Liguilla. So who will win it all?

Split up into three tiers, let’s dive into our team-by-team preview for the Liga MX playoffs.

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Tier 1: The title contenders

Regular-season record: 11W-4D-2L (1st place)
Number of league titles: 11

Road to playoffs

A championship hangover kicked things off with a 3W-1D-2L start before powering through their ongoing 12-game undefeated streak in all competitions.

Even without injured star Alexis Vega, who is expected to return to play in the Liguilla after last featuring for Toluca in late October, leading goal scorer Paulinho has been an invaluable asset with his joint-league-leading 12 goals.

Biggest strength and weakness

Toluca are, bar none, the best attacking team in Liga MX. They lead the league in xG (33.71), goals scored (43), and chances (227). Paulinho is doing much of that work, but you also have others, such as Vega, Nicolás Castro and Jesús Ricardo Angulo, who have been crucial sources of goal contributions.

Does the No. 1 seed have a weakness? That’s genuinely tough to say, but the actual fitness of Vega is something to keep tabs on, and if we’re grasping at straws, more defensive-minded and pragmatic teams such as Atlas, Pachuca and Tijuana have been able to keep Toluca winless since last month.

Player to watch

Who else but Paulinho? Toluca’s acquisition of the Portuguese striker was a coup in 2024, and since then, he’s stepped up as arguably the best forward in Mexican club soccer. The 33-year-old has 10 goals and an assist in his past eight Liga MX appearances.

Postseason prediction

They’ll at least be finalists and shouldn’t have too many difficulties against the No. 8 seed FC Juárez. Toluca’s home atmosphere is one of the best in Liga MX and will provide an additional boost for a team (and city) that have a chip on their shoulder in comparison to the usual geographic and sporting giants of Mexico.

Regular-season record: 10W-4D-3L (4th place)
Number of league titles: 16, most in Liga MX

Road to playoffs

A near-perfect start then developed into some shaky moments in recent weeks thanks to two losses — against playoff teams — in their past five. Either way, you can’t ignore the pedigree of Brazilian coach André Jardine. The 46-year-old, who has had even more serious questions in the past before successful playoff runs, has consistently surpassed expectations with three league titles since 2023.

Biggest strength and weakness

You don’t often think of Club América for their defensive tactics over their attack-minded efforts (keep an eye on their set-piece goals), but you have to give credit to the backline that leads the league in successful tackles, duels and aerial duels. Only Tigres allowed fewer goals and that’s even with some occasional worries about starting goalkeeper Ángel Malagón for the Mexico City side.

Questions do remain, though. Las Aguilas often need time to work themselves into matches, and of the eight playoff teams, no Liga MX squad has scored fewer goals (10) in the first half of matches than Club América. For the sake of comparison, Toluca scored 22 goals in their first halves this season.

Player to watch

Sporting the No. 10, it’s United States international Alejandro Zendejas. Back from injury, no game changer has made more of an impact for the Mexico City giants than the inside winger who has returned from a muscle injury that left him out of a handful of games this fall. Agile, technical and with an eye for the net, the American for Club América is one of the most threatening final-third figures in Liga MX.

Postseason prediction

Zendejas will be the game changer, but Allan Saint-Maximin will provide one of the defining goals of the postseason. Although the former Newcastle United attacker hasn’t been entirely consistent since his summer move, he’s shown that he loves the spotlight on big occasions and will now have an invaluable opportunity on a substantial playoff stage.

Regular-season record: 10W-6D-1L (2nd place)
Number of league titles: 8

Road to playoffs

Following a difficult 3-1 loss against Club América in August, Tigres have yet to lose a Liga MX match under the leadership of young manager and former captain Guido Pizarro. Undefeated in their past 13, they’ve proven to be one of the most challenging clubs to beat but have also found themselves earning a handful of questionable draws along the way.

Biggest strength and weakness

Commonly known as “El Volcan” (The Volcano), Tigres have once again made their intimidating home venue a fortress. Within their grounds, they have an eye-catching goal differential of plus-14 over nine matches and have scored an average of 2.4 times at those matches.

It’s perhaps not surprising because of Pizarro’s own scrappiness during his playing days, but no playoff team earned more yellows (46) in the regular season than Tigres. Including their opponents, Tigres’ matches have also become a source of plenty of reds, with seven shown in the past four games.

Player to watch

With living legend André-Pierre Gignac now in the twilight of his career, the latest passing of the goal-scoring torch has been given to Argentine star Ángel Correa. The former Atlético Madrid attacker and World Cup champion is charging into the postseason with seven goal contributions since last month.

Postseason prediction

Gignac, “Mr. Liguilla” himself, will once again step up in the playoffs with another highlight-worthy moment or two. Sure, he’s on the cusp of turning 40 and is no longer a guaranteed starter or fine-tuned finisher, but the Frenchman loves to thrive in the playoffs. Keep in mind, this could also be one of his last seasons before his contract ends next summer.


Tier 2: The underdogs

Regular-season record: 9W-2D-6L (6th place)
Number of league titles: 12

Road to playoffs

“Momentum” is immediately the word that comes to mind when thinking of Chivas. After an abysmal start to the Apertura with just one win in their first six games, Los Rojiblancos are now picking up a significant amount of speed with seven wins in their past eight matches.

Things are truly beginning to click for manager Gabriel Milito and his 3-4-2-1 setup that earned a statement-making 4-2 win over Monterrey in the final match of the regular season.

Biggest strength and weakness

When it comes to winning back the ball in dangerous areas, few teams are better than Chivas. Second in the league in high turnovers (winning back possession within 40 meters of the opponent’s goal) and high turnovers ending in shots, Milito’s group of players are often able to create danger out of nothing.

But they’re not the most efficient team in front of the net. With a 29.8% shots on target percentage, Chivas rank as the worst in Liga MX and need plenty of opportunities to test the goalkeeper.

Player to watch

One efficient player: Armando “Hormiga” González. Once an unknown academy prospect, the 22-year-old striker has now become a household name in Mexico thanks to his joint-league-leading tally of 12 goals. With rumors of European teams keeping tabs on the player, González should be more than motivated to lift his stock even more.

Postseason prediction

They’ll provide the first upset of the playoffs after defeating Cruz Azul. Chivas have an impressive list of convincing results recently behind them, an in-form goal scorer like González, and levels of optimism that haven’t been seen in years for the Liga MX giants. It’s a real stretch to say they could win it all, but they did have two fewer regular-season points during their last title run in 2017.

Regular season record: 10W-5D-2L (3rd place)
Number of league titles: 9

Road to playoffs

Plenty of good signs, but also some recent worries from the promising-but-well-versed-in-Liga MX manager Nicolás Larcamón. Cruz Azul emerged early on as the strongest in the league with a 10-game undefeated run before earning some slip-ups in the fall. The wear and tear of the Larcamón system, coupled with an injury to starting goalkeeper Kevin Mier this month, could prove to hurt their playoff dreams.

Biggest strength and weakness

Larcamón is going to want to dictate the pace of the game and loves to hold onto possession. Through their eagerness to maintain the ball, Cruz Azul are excellent at winning it back in the heart of the pitch and lead all playoff teams in the total number of possessions regained in the midfield.

Following the injury to Mier, the weakness is an obvious one: goalkeeping. Backup Andres Gudiño isn’t as imposing a shot-stopper as Mier and will likely struggle in the quarterfinal series.

Player to watch

Within the playoff teams, no player created more chances (43) in the regular season than Cruz Azul midfielder Carlos “Charly” Rodríguez. Thanks to his distribution and his seven goal contributions, the 28-year-old has been a stable presence through his appearances in all 17 games of the Apertura.

Postseason prediction

Sorry, Cruz Azul. As noted earlier with Chivas, you’ll be the first higher seed to be knocked out. It’s perhaps due to possession-heavy style, but Los Cementeros limped into the postseason with just three wins from their past eight. Even if it’s just a slight bump in the road, there’s also no overlooking the absence of a key figure like Mier.

Regular-season record: 9W-4D-4L (5th place)
Number of league titles: 5

Road to playoffs

Liga MX’s most star-studded team once again showcased that their highly talented group may not be, in fact, greater than the sum of their parts.

Beginning and ending the regular season with losses, Rayados had a decent mid-tournament run through a seven-game winning streak before stumbling over their last handful of games. They have just one win in their past six and were brought down to earth with the 4-2 loss to Chivas to close out the regular season.

Biggest strength and weakness

If we’re strictly looking at individual talent and clutch players that could reawaken in the postseason, no team is more stacked. With players such as Sergio Ramos, Anthony Martial, Óliver Torres, Sergio Canales, Germán Berterame and Lucas Ocampos, there’s no shortage of heavy hitters for coach Domènec Torrent.

It’s a nice problem to have, but also a hurdle for Monterrey managers like Torrent and others who have consistently been unable to win the trophies that are expected of their eye-catching rosters. There’s no room for all of the celebrity names in the starting XI, and while tinkering with the roster, they’ve fallen down the standings and into fifth by the playoffs.

Player to watch

Among the marquee names, Ramos shines the brightest. He’s not only the captain and an aggressive defensive presence in the backline, but also the league leader in total passes attempted (1,167) and completed (1,055). Could this also be his last run with Monterrey? His contract ends in December, but renewal talks are underway.

Postseason prediction

Monterrey didn’t help themselves with their poor end to the season. They could have leapfrogged a Tijuana or Juárez in the quarterfinals, but Club América? That’s not happening. As per usual, expect the big spenders with the most dazzling stadium in North American soccer to exit early on.


Tier 3: The long shots

Regular-season record: 6W-6D-5L (7th place)
Number of league titles: 1

Road to playoffs

A lot of hit or miss for the only playoff team that never won back-to-back games in the regular season. In the play-in round, they secured their quarterfinal invitation with a 3-1 win over Juárez. To be fair to manager Sebastián Abreu, he is doing the most with the modest roster he has been given and is ranked fourth in the league for xG (27.65), but inconsistency has plagued the team that has earned only one win away from home.

Biggest strength and weakness

But as for those games at the Estadio Caliente? That’s a different story. At home, Xolos went undefeated in the regular season and only allowed six goals across nine matches. For Tigres in the quarterfinals, it won’t be straightforward playing at the bordertown stadium with artificial turf.

Over 180-plus minutes though, Tijuana’s lack of depth will hold them back. With a limited roster budget, Xolos don’t have very many answers off the bench, which is why they often have issues with closing out games. Of their 23 goals allowed, 16 have been scored after the 60th minute.

Player to watch

Remember our article on teenage wonderkid Gilberto Mora? In case you forgot, he just so happens to play for Tijuana. Playing with the confidence and technical abilities of a player in the prime of his career — he hit a panenka penalty that helped guide Xolos to the playoffs — Mora is must-watch soccer.

Postseason prediction

Mora will provide some moments of magic, but as for his team, it’s difficult to see them getting past Tigres. As long as they don’t embarrass themselves, a quarterfinal exit is still surpassing preseason expectations for Abreu and his roster.

Regular-season record: 6W-5D-6L (8th place)
Number of league titles: 0

Road to playoffs

Like Xolos, there’s been plenty of inconsistencies. Their best run of form emerged in August through a three-game winning streak, and since then, Juárez have bounced around through a wide range of results. A play-in loss to Xolos nearly knocked them out of the running before defeating Pachuca last Sunday for the final top-eight spot.

Biggest strength and weakness

There’s no doubt that they are threats in the air. A league-leading 28.8% of their shots emerged from headers and Juárez are second in Liga MX (55.8%) when it comes to winning aerial duels.

As for their weakness, it’s a fairly crucial one in the sport: scoring. No playoff team scored fewer goals (27) in the regular season than Juárez, and they are also the only member of the top eight with a negative goal differential (-1).

Player to watch

If they have a fighting chance, it’ll likely be due to former Hull City striker Oscar Estupiñan. The Colombian leads Juárez with nine goals scored this season and has proven to be clinical with his penalty taking. Can Estupiñan shake things up against Toluca?

Postseason prediction

No matter what happens, Juárez are just happy to be here. It could be a blowout against Toluca, but there’s no shame in doing so after failing to qualify for the quarterfinals in the last 10 seasons.

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